North Carolina Cities Dominate National Retail Rankings in Latest Forecast

In a significant endorsement of the Southeast's commercial real estate prowess, two North Carolina markets have claimed the highest honors in a widely followed national retail forecast. Charlotte has taken the top spot, with Raleigh following closely at number two, according to the newly released 2026 Retail Investment Forecast Report from Marcus & Millichap.

The dual recognition, published March 12, underscores what many in the industry have observed anecdotally: the Carolinas are experiencing a retail renaissance fueled by demographic shifts, corporate relocations, and a business-friendly regulatory environment. For investors and developers eyeing the retail sector, these markets represent the gold standard for near-term performance.

Key Details

The Marcus & Millichap report positions Charlotte as the nation's premier retail investment market, with Raleigh-Durham claiming the runner-up position. This one-two punch demonstrates the depth of North Carolina's appeal across different urban environments—from Charlotte's status as a major financial hub to Raleigh's emergence as a technology and research powerhouse.

According to Bisnow, the rankings reflect broader trends that have been reshaping the retail landscape in Sun Belt markets. Both cities have benefited from sustained population inflows, particularly among millennials and remote workers seeking lower costs of living without sacrificing urban amenities.

The timing of the 2026 forecast is particularly notable, as it suggests these markets will maintain their competitive advantage well into the future, despite ongoing economic uncertainties that have tempered investor enthusiasm in other regions.

Market Impact

For commercial real estate professionals, this ranking carries several implications worth monitoring. First, the concentration of top-tier markets in North Carolina will likely accelerate capital deployment into the region, potentially compressing cap rates as institutional investors compete for a limited supply of quality assets.

Retail landlords in both markets should anticipate continued tenant demand, particularly from experiential retailers and quick-service restaurants that have proven resilient against e-commerce disruption. However, the influx of investment capital may also create pricing pressures that could challenge underwriting assumptions for marginal deals.

Developers should take note that the pipeline in both markets remains relatively constrained, which bodes well for existing property owners but may create opportunities for ground-up development in infill locations. The report's forward-looking nature suggests that fundamentals will remain supportive of new construction, provided that labor and material costs don't erode project economics.

For investors sitting on the sidelines, the message is clear: North Carolina's retail sector is commanding premium valuations for good reason, and waiting for a correction may prove costly. The combination of population growth, household formation, and corporate relocations creates a durable demand base that should sustain outperformance relative to legacy markets in the Northeast and West Coast.

Related coverage: Carolina Commercial Breaks Ground on $18M Overhaul of Lumberton Retail Hub · Hilltide Capital Acquires Stonesthrow Crossing Retail Center in Greensboro · CBRE Facilitates $3.7M Multi-Tenant Retail Transaction in San Diego Suburb

Rankings Need Property-Level Diligence

A top market ranking can summarize favorable population, spending, vacancy, and construction trends, but it cannot price a specific center. Trade-area income, tenant rollover, co-tenancy clauses, access, competition, and the buyer's basis still drive returns.

Investors should also distinguish Charlotte and Raleigh submarkets rather than treating either metro as uniform. Strong demand can attract new construction and compress acquisition yields, reducing the benefit of growth if the purchase price assumes too much. The forecast is most useful as a screening tool that leads to more detailed local underwriting.