Major retail plans could reshape South Mountain and Laveen

Analysis | Sam Losek

Vestar is planning more than 460,000 square feet of retail at Laveen Towne Center at Loop 202 and Dobbins Road, while a proposed 84,000-square-foot WinCo would anchor the commercial portion of The Grove on Baseline at 19th Avenue. The two projects could substantially expand the shopping, dining and service offerings in South Mountain and Laveen. Vestar project overview; AZBEX's WinCo reporting.

For retailers and commercial developers, the opportunity is to serve a growing residential base with a broader mix of tenants. A grocery anchor can generate repeat visits, while restaurants, entertainment and services can give customers additional reasons to use a center. The strength of that mix, and the ease of reaching it, will help determine how these projects perform.

Their influence could extend beyond the retail sites. As these commercial plans move forward, I am watching how they interact with the higher value single family developments I am already seeing in the area. New housing supplies potential customers, and a stronger retail offering could make nearby residential development more attractive.

The WinCo plaza brings the story to Baseline

The Grove on Baseline is planned at the southeast corner of 19th Avenue and Baseline Road. An approximately 84,000-square-foot WinCo is proposed as an anchor in the commercial portion of the larger mixed-use development. On August 26, Phoenix adopted the ordinance covering review of the 35.03-acre commercial site's conceptual plans. AZBEX's project reporting; City Council action.

The commercial appeal starts with the frequency of grocery shopping. An anchor that brings customers back regularly can create opportunities for complementary shops and services. For those tenants, visibility, access and the ability to turn an anchor's visitors into their own customers will matter. For surrounding neighborhoods, a useful tenant mix could also improve everyday convenience.

The project remains a development plan. The council action is a planning milestone, and an opening date still needs confirmation. Its significance today is the prospect of adding a major everyday destination alongside the area's residential growth.

Laveen Towne Center could change the scale of the offering

The larger shopping destination at the southeast corner of Loop 202 and Dobbins Road is Vestar's Laveen Towne Center. The developer's current project page describes roughly 90 acres with more than 460,000 square feet of retail and hundreds of housing units planned. Its June tenant announcement named businesses including Fat Cats, First Watch, Club Pilates and Costa Vida. Those are commitments for a future center. Vestar project overview; June 24 tenant announcement.

The announced mix gives the center several potential sources of visits: dining, entertainment, fitness and everyday services. How those uses work together will matter to the leasing story. A center that serves several household needs could also become an amenity that nearby builders and residential landlords can point to when marketing their properties.

Housing is also part of the project itself. Phoenix's zoning case describes a mix of retail, multifamily housing, attached single-family housing and assisted living. The plan puts commercial and residential uses together within the same development. City of Phoenix, Laveen Towne Center zoning case.

There is a second project at the interchange: Williams Station, across Dobbins on the northeast corner. Diversified Partners announced that separate $50 million development with The Rush Funplex as its anchor, alongside dining and services. It adds to the potential concentration of destinations at the intersection. Williams Station announcement.

Each project has its own timetable. Vestar's published materials have carried different size estimates and opening targets, and Williams Station's original schedule needs a fresh construction update. Construction progress and tenant openings will be the next evidence of how the announced commercial investment translates into operating retail space.

Why the single family development matters

The higher value single family development I am seeing makes this more than a question of how many rooftops can support another store. It raises a question about the kind of residential market South Mountain and Laveen are becoming, and whether the surrounding amenities will keep pace.

A buyer considering a more expensive home may weigh the finishes and floor plan alongside the commute, nearby shopping and places to spend a weekend. My expectation is that a fuller set of local amenities will help some developments compete for those buyers. The effect will depend on how well each neighborhood connects to the new destinations.

The customer base is broadening through rental development as well. Rockefeller Group's October 21 announcement describes Farinosa Villas as a 213-residence community under construction at 3737 W. Dobbins Road, with detached residences, duplexes, townhomes and carriage-style units. Rockefeller Group announcement via MadridMedia.

Together, these are signs of retail and residential investment taking shape in the same broader area. They do not establish that a particular shopping center caused a housing project, but they make the relationship worth watching closely.

The advantage will be local, not uniform

I would be careful about assigning the same benefit to every address with a South Mountain or Laveen label. A home with an easy route to a center may gain convenience. A home beside a busy entrance may face more turning traffic, deliveries or evening activity. Both outcomes can come from the same development.

The connections deserve as much attention as the tenant names. Can residents reach the stores without a long detour? Are there continuous sidewalks, usable crossings and shade? A center can be close on a map and still be awkward to reach on foot. In Phoenix, an exposed walk across a large parking field is a real limit on how useful proximity becomes.

That is also where community expectations matter. More national retailers can broaden choice, but the quality of the change depends on whether the area also makes room for local businesses and places to gather. Existing residents should be part of the conversation about access, traffic and the character of what gets built.

What I will be watching

A new retail destination gives builders and landlords something additional to market. It does not, by itself, establish that homes are appreciating because of that destination. Mortgage costs, available inventory, builder incentives and the condition of individual properties still affect housing decisions.

The higher value development I am noticing is an observation about the housing being added. Measuring appreciation in existing homes would require comparable sales over time, with attention to home size, age, concessions and other differences.

What I will be watching is straightforward: additional leasing commitments, construction progress, which tenants open and how the nearby housing leases or sells. Those milestones will show how the commercial projects are taking shape alongside their customer base.

Laveen Towne Center and the proposed WinCo plaza could change the scale and mix of retail serving South Mountain and Laveen. Their ability to attract tenants and become useful local destinations will also help determine how much they influence the area's next phase of residential growth.

Photograph licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0. The photo is a May 2024 regional view, not a record of current construction.